Thursday, November 4, 2010

Republicans and the Great Social waves

I wasn't surprised when the Republicans reclaimed the house a few days ago, although I did expect that the they were going to get more senates seats then they did. What we see happening is a reactive wave that was triggered by a decade-plus of corruption and anti-liberty policies conducted by the bi-factional ruling party. This reactive wave has taken into the form of the tea-party, which is an adjustment from complacency to social unrest.

The historically inclined reader will note that this turnaround in the election cycle was even more dramatic than the one that occurred in '94. The reason is that inertia can only be countered by a greater force. The pendulum really does swing back; the greater the wave, the stronger its counter wave. What are its implications?

Robert Prechtor has developed an intriguing field called socionomics, which analyzes the various waves of mass human behavior, very much similar to the concept of psychohistory as described in Isaac Asimov's Foundation series. Prechtor has divided the waves into different categories, according to there strengths. They range from Positive mood bull waves to a Grand Supercycle Bear wave. It is Prechtor's contention that we are presently in the mist of a Grand Supercycle wave that was an order of magnitude worse than the supercycle wave that encompassed the Great Depression.

Prechtors conclusions have a certain political significance in that they inform us that no matter who we vote in, even Ron Paul, there will still be a drastic economic and cultural ills that cannot be fixed overnight, given how this is the result of literal decades of negative social inertia. Many republicans and tea partiers still have their hopes up that a conservative victory in the congress, and eventually in the presidency, can cure our societal and economic cancers, but I am afraid that these hopes are misplaced. While they certainly can ameliorate the situation, they cannot avert it.
Some insist that the worst is over and that we have only room for improvement, citing the march 2009 bull rally as evidence - although I find it highly amusing that no one worth his water has cited the hilarious post facto revisions that imply that the recession ended in june 2009. As much as I want to embrace their optimism, I cannot, for all cultural and economic indicators vouch otherwise. Not only is the level of malinvestment higher than the Great Depression, but the present U.S economy is far less amendable to correction and recovery; The U.S's manufacturing base is wiped out, debt is at unsustainable levels, security and health care programs are going bankrupt, the people are rapidly becoming fat and decadent, there are more parasitical government and government mandated workers, and more welfare recipients. The situation is far worse than what our present economic statistics lead us to believe.

As for the march 2009 bull rally, i'm particularly concerned because it is has lasted this long; it really will be a hard and fast fall once it is over, and it will not look pretty. The tea party is little more than a reactive movement to the wave that will ultimately ensure America's unraveling. A fool can see a crises when it hits, but it takes a wise man to spot it from a distance. The tea party was just a little late , I'm afraid, and while it can prevent the crises from being exacerbated, it cannot preclude its inevitable appearance. It will, however, be interesting to see how the republicans will act in washington. Will they take a stand for genuine freedom, unplugged safety nets, and the principles of our Nation's founding, or will they persist in the same, failed policies of the previous decades?

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