Tuesday, February 22, 2011

You know its true

Many of the great literary classics have libertarian themes. Atlas Shrugged, The moon is a harsh mistress, 1984, We.

My hypothesis is that there are many good novels out there, those have just stood the test of time and have become great due to the veracity of their worldview.

My leftist critics trembled.

You really wish to doubt?

The message of this blog has been a little dark for the past few months. Many have expressed their agreement with the Vanfair worldview but have denied its logical implications for the future state of the economy and Western Civilization.

To those that doubt my projections, please bear in mind that they are not based upon superstitious doomsday scenarios or prophecies from obscure pseudo-prophets, but rigorous mathematics and proven models that describe the way the world actually works.

Let me ask you, dear skeptical reader, do you truly decry the policies and the trends going on, and yet deny the harsh consequences of such policies?

Do you genuinely believe that immigration - and the multiculturalism that follows - is a killer of its host, and yet disbelieve that American will never be the same again?

Do really believe that you yourself would go bankrupt, if you plunged yourself into debt that could not possibly be paid back, and yet believe that our government will remain solvent?

Do you absolutely trust in the multiplication tables, and yet lack faith that they apply to the demographic situation of the West?

Have you observed the oft-confirmed principle that most people are idiots, and yet think that giving them the right to vote won't discredit American democracy?

Do you actually accept the fundamental fact of Homo Sapien's collective nature that the more you subsidize something, the more you get of it, and yet remain in denial that putting half the population in dependence and unproductivity, and yet believe our economy is sustainable?

Do you cherish the fact that the nuclear family is the foundation of a civilization, and still cling to the notion that society can survive, if it is considered an outdated concept?

It is understandable that most have either shyed away from or have been in denial about the dark future that awaits us. But good people know it in their hearts. Some sense it but are unable to properly articulate it. Others know but wish not to contemplate it. And then there is the Alpha Anomaly, who is not afraid to speak his thoughts, and is enamored by provoking readers to understand the world not in its pretty, reality-twisted form, but through the fundamental underpinnings that drive the motor of the human invention, the pinnings that reveal a world wholly distinct from the one conceived of those pretty, dainty lies.

Friday, February 18, 2011

Abolish it

To quote Jonah Goldberg
Since Plato's Republic, politicans, intellectuals, and priests have been fascinated with the idea of "capturing" children for social-engineering purposes.
Whoever said that those who rocked the cradle ruled the world was absolutely right. Public education is wholly antithetical to the cause of freedom because it puts the nation's fate in the Government's hands. By creating an economic atmosphere where both parents work, the Commufeminists have skillfully filled the vacuum of child support by supplying the public schools - aka. public day care. And by doing so they have significantly weakened one of the best bulwarks against Government power - the nuclear family.

Every freedom loving patriot should be adamant about abolishing the public school. I mean abolish, not reform it. The typical conservative argument that the schools are inadequate in their modern form but can be remedied by educational reform is a joke. The public school is categorically incongruous with human liberty because it fuels the entity that destroys it. So while it is true that the education program of the public school is severely lacking, this concern should not be confused with the fundamental objection thrown its way.

As I am writing this, I am listening to 30 seconds to mars song "this is war", in which the singer (bolstered by people's voices in the backround) laments - no, celebrates, if the tone is any indication - that its a brave new world. For some reason, I have no trouble imagining public schoolers relishing singing this for a school play. Then stuck in my mind are the images of Huxley's novel. If possible, I really would like to avoid such a world.

Wednesday, February 16, 2011

Me vs. the Experts

There was an article in the Wall Street Journal informing us that the economists there were optimistic about this upcoming year. The optimism, of course, rests entirely on false indicators and a bloated emphasis on consumer confidence and spending, not realizing that the underlying problem is too much spending and too much debt. Not understanding the true nature of the recession has caused the financial authorities to push for the precise policies that got us into this mess in the first place, having the effect of creating an artificial recovery that will be followed by a deeper and harder crash.

A newly Resilient economy is poised to expand this year at its fastest pace since 2003, thanks in part to brisk spending by consumers and businesses.

Spending that would otherwise not take place if the true condition of the economy were widely known. But as we will see, much of this spending is based on much of the same cheap credit that fueled the previous decades boom and subsequent bust.

The 51 economists polled.... expect gross domestic product will be 3.5% higher in the fourth quarter of 2011 than a year earlier... that would be the largest increase since 2003.

Those economists must not be paying attention to Washington lately. Much of GDP growth reported in the previous year was a result from the increase of Government spending. Once the Government is unable to carry any more debt and the new Republican congress refuses to tolerate it, GDP will plummet. This is not a bad thing, but it will strip away the comforting illusions that serve as the basis for most of the optimistic forecasts.

To be sure, the economy faces substantial challenges, including high foreclosure rates, rising commodity prices, strained state and local governments as well as the risk that financial tremors in europe and geopolitical ones in Egypt could cut into growth.
Realistic rendition of the above text: the economy faces huge challenges; there is too much debt, private and public, that has to be liquidated.

Since late last summer, the economy appears to have strengthened considerably. The economists put the risk of a return to recession at 12%, down from 22% in September.

How so? The fact that people have forgot about Europe? That their doubts about the economy are silenced by the skewed and deeply fraudulent GDP and unemployment numbers? The BLS notwithstanding, the economy is very much struggling, and only a FED Cheerleader trying to feed our collective "animal spirits" can seriously have good prospects for this year's economy.

Meanwhile, nine of 10 say the turmoil in Egypt hasn't substantially altered their outlook.

Here is a perfect example of academics concentrating too much on the micro fact without considering the broader trends behind it. What the turmoil in Egypt indicates is a wave of societal unrest. Academic social science notwithstanding, there really are waves of human emotion that flow inexorably. The specifics of the waves may be beyond even the the finest of human minds, but there is an engine that drives history and events, waves in which Egypt is merely a harbinger to.

The economists over at the journal are mislead because they have forgot that superficial growth can sow the seeds of an ensuing crises. Four years ago, the economy was booming by every standard. But what did it beget? And what makes you believe that the apparent recovery is not composed of the same substance as the previous boom? Interest rates are at record lows, foreclosures are being stalled, debt is accumulating, the gap in our manufacturing capacity is overshadowed by the fact that we get our goods for free (at least for now), the bond market is bubbling, heck, even student loans are bubbling.

Whether it will collapse this year or not is uncertain, but it will happen within the next few years. Here's the test in which we see who is right. The economic authorities read by millions, or your humble messenger of this little internet outpost.