Sunday, August 7, 2011

Realizing the obvious

Earlier this morning, I was in the church bathroom, doing what everyone else does in there. Once I finished my business and proceeded to the sink, I made eye contact with an older man. Reflexively, he gave me a "hey." To be polite, I smiled and asked "hey, whats going on?" He gave a quick chuckle and uttered " I don't know, but if I did I would be rich." I laughed because he gave a reference to something totally irrelevant and yet I knew precisely what he was talking about.

The financial markets, you think?

Everybody knows something drastic is going on. The stock market plummeted deeper last week than any other week since October 2008. People can smell a faint, but ominous odor in the air.
One may not be able to detect the particulars of that odor, or when its toxic levels will drive them to shelter. But the stench of 2008 is back - not that the economy has made any material improvements since then. Whether the upcoming months will proceed in Fall-2008 fashion is unknown at this point. But what is known with almost axiomatic certainty is that the economy will look a whole lot worse before it gets better, the inevitable debt-deleveraging process guarantees that.

See, what has become increasingly obvious to the causal observer has been predicted by numerous professional and amateur economists of the contrarian blogosphere and other nonmainstream outlets that care more about truth and preparing people for the future than muddling their "animal spirits" or "consumer confidence."

But in the meantime, get ready for the downswing.

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